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The Price of Oil, by Roberto F. Aguilera, Marian Radetzki
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Drawing on their extensive knowledge of the oil industry, Roberto F. Aguilera and Marian Radetzki provide an in-depth examination of the price of the world's most important commodity. They argue that although oil has experienced an extraordinary price increase over the past few decades, we have now reached a turning point where scarcity, uncertain supply and high prices will be replaced by abundance, undisturbed availability and suppressed price levels. They look at the potential of new global oil revolutions to bring the upward price push to an end and examine the implications of this turnaround for the world economy, as well as for politics, diplomacy, military interventions and the efforts to stabilize climate. This book will appeal to a wide readership of both academics and professionals working in the energy industry, as well as to general readers interested in the ongoing debate about oil prices.
- Sales Rank: #622498 in eBooks
- Published on: 2015-10-31
- Released on: 2015-11-03
- Format: Kindle eBook
Review
"This cheerfully iconoclastic analysis of the past, present and future of the petroleum industry makes a compelling read. Whilst some of its conclusions will be undoubtedly challenged as contradicting the conventional wisdom, it carefully sets out their underlying logic and assumptions. That applies as much to the first part that anatomises the behaviour of crude oil prices over the past forty years as to the subsequent discussion of the shale oil revolution and its implications. Although the authors' own views of the future are clear they are careful to stress the uncertainties and are at pains to provide a range of possible futures. The book should be required reading not just for specialists but for all those involved with the petroleum industry and energy policy, however tangentially."
Phillip Crowson, Honorary Professor and Professorial Research Fellow, Centre for Energy, Petroleum and Mineral Law and Policy, University of Dundee
"This fascinating book elucidates the economics, geography, history, and politics of oil and the price of oil. The authors explain why the shale revolution seems likely to keep oil prices comparatively low for a long time to come, demonstrating how the power of technology and human ingenuity prevails over concerns about depletion. They also lay out the links between the shale and conventional oil revolutions and climate policy. An excellent and edifying read."
Thorvaldur Gylfason, University of Iceland
"Much has been written about life under high oil prices. Aguilera and Radetzki offer an early and valuable attempt to grapple with the economic, geopolitical and climate implications of life under low oil prices."
Russell Gold, Senior Energy Reporter, The Wall Street Journal and author of The Boom
"If there is one book to read to understand how oil has been priced over the past half century and how it is likely to be priced over the next half century this is it. Aguilera and Radetzki have produced a tour de force. In simple English they have summarized the disruptive implications of the shale revolutions - hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling - on unleashing supplies at lower costs that will continue to wreak havoc with the petro-states of the world and define not just the geopolitics of oil but the politics of climate change and a host of other macro- economic issues for decades to come. Their out-of-the box dramatic conclusions about low prices for years to come are based on transparent assumptions and modeling, and in the process they manage to tackle the major strands of energy economics over the last fifty years in a manner that will be meaningful to the lay public and both meaningfully challenging and controversial for experts."
Edward L. Morse, Head of Commodities Research, Citibank
"This is a fascinating book written in a clear and convincing manner on an extremely important and timely question - namely, how will the real price of oil evolve over the long run defined as the next twenty years? For readers ... who want to know about past and future trends in the price of oil, this is definitely a book to read."
Resources Policy
"Why is the price of oil so volatile? I thought I knew the answer... till I read Aguilera and Radetzki."
Matt Ridley, The Times
"I found this book to be well argued, thought provoking, and fun to read. The authors have presented both statistical data and literature studies to support their case while acknowledging alternative points of view that they think less likely. Those with professional interest in energy markets as well as the general public interested in energy issues are likely to enjoy this book."
Carol A. Dahl, The Energy Journal
About the Author
Roberto F. Aguilera is an adjunct research fellow at Curtin University, Australia, and an associate of Servipetrol Ltd, Canada. He has participated in numerous energy studies, including with the World Petroleum Council, US National Petroleum Council, and UN Expert Group on Resource Classification.
Marian Radetzki is Professor of Economics at Luleå University of Technology, Sweden. He has held visiting professorships at Colorado School of Mines, and at Pontificia Catholic University of Chile, researching on minerals and energy. In the 1970s, Professor Radetzki worked as Chief Economist at the International Copper Cartel, and has undertaken numerous consultancies over the years.
Most helpful customer reviews
2 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
An impressive achievement
By Mac Tipton
You couldn't ask for a better book about The Price of Oil. Be forewarned that this is a research-heavy book about the history of oil prices, the many factors that affect the price of oil, and predictions for the future (up to the year 2035) for the price of oil. The book isn't cheap, at $36, but for those who are motivated to learn more about the topic, from a historical or an investment standpoint, the purchase will be money well spent.
I'll caution you again the book is not for everybody. The paperback version is 242 pages, including index, but the information is dense. It is written like a long research paper, complete with numerous references. The authors communicate the results of their study in clear, readable fashion, but it may come across as dry to those accustomed to anecdotes, humorous asides, or anything of that nature. There are none here. The authors stay tightly focused on their ambitious goal.
The most challenging part of the book for the average reader will be the prediction methodology that is explained. Rather than just offer long-range predictions for oil prices, the authors explain how they arrived at these numbers. The methods were challenging for me to understand, but I believe with a second read, I could master the ideas, and perhaps even adopt the methods, using current or future data to make even better predictions, going forward. But being able to understand or adopt their predictive methods certainly is not necessary to enjoy or gain from reading the book.
The main point of the book is that oil is moving into an era of abundance, and a correspondingly low price, largely due to the advent of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing ("fracking") in the US. The authors touch upon many other topics, such as OPEC, government ownership of oil resources, the longevity of shale oil, climate concerns, environmental issues with fracking, and whether fracking will spread to the rest of the world (they believe it will). I also learned about many various things; the problems with transporting gas and oil by rail, the competitiveness of renewable energy sources, like wind and solar, how carbon emissions can be stored underground to prevent release into the atmosphere, the various ways electricity is generated, and so on.
The book is very current, with commentary about oil prices as recent as early 2015. The book has very specific, helpful information such as estimates on how much it costs to produce a barrel of oil in various parts of the world by conventional means or by fracking. At the time of this writing, the price of oil is below $30 a barrel. Is it even profitable to continue producing oil at these low prices? Will prices this low put a stop to fracking? This book is the place to find out.
If you are interested in learning about the history of oil prices, the many factors that influence it, and a view of the current situation, I strongly recommend this to you for purchase.
0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
A very persuasive and easy-to-read book forecasting low oil prices for decades to come
By Cristofer D Sheridan
This book is sure to be the talk of energy executives, investors, and academics around the globe as co-authors Roberto and Marian argue quite persuasively that the world is likely to see low oil prices for decades to come. (They give a forecast of $40-60 out to 2035!)
First, before you think this book is merely an extrapolation of the current trend of lower prices, it is important to point out that their forecasts were based on a multi-year analysis as oil was still trading around $100, long before its recent collapse, which started last year.
The authors explain that the twin technological revolutions of fracking and horizontal drilling, which allowed for a massive explosion in US oil production, will inevitably expand to the rest of the world. Given that the US only sits on a small fraction of total shale reserves (around 17%), ample supplies will be unlocked in countries like Russia, China, Australia, and elsewhere, which in some cases hold much larger deposits.
Also, the authors point out that fracking and horizontal drilling do not just unlock millions of previously inaccessible barrels of oil from shale, but from conventional oil deposits as well—something that many people don't realize.
Putting all the above together and the authors conclude that we are just in the beginning stages of a well supplied oil market for decades to come. This is a very interesting book covering all aspects of the oil market--peak oil, the Middle East, macroeconomics, geopolitics, the environment--and will be sure to make you think more deeply about such an important commodity.
0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Four Stars
By Amazon Customer
It is good
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